1. 01
   Founder forecast2025-2026

   Elon Musk

   CEO, xAI and Tesla

   Predicted AI smarter than the smartest human could arrive next year or within two years, depending on compute and power constraints.

   Statement: 2024View source
2. 02
   Frontier lab2026+

   Dario Amodei

   CEO, Anthropic

   Said powerful AI, a term he prefers over AGI, could come as early as 2026, while also noting it may take much longer.

   Statement: 2024View source
3. 03
   AI strategy2027

   Leopold Aschenbrenner

   Founder, Situational Awareness; former OpenAI researcher

   Argued that AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible based on compute trends, algorithmic efficiency, and agentic unhobbling gains.

   Statement: 2024View source
4. 04
   AGI researcher2028

   Shane Legg

   Co-founder and Chief AGI Scientist, Google DeepMind

   Reiterated his long-held estimate of a 50 percent chance of human-level AGI by 2028.

   Statement: 2023View source
5. 05
   AI infrastructure2029

   Jensen Huang

   Founder and CEO, NVIDIA

   Said AGI could arrive within five years if measured by whether AI systems can perform well across human-designed tests.

   Statement: 2024View source
6. 06
   Long-range forecaster2029

   Ray Kurzweil

   Futurist and computer scientist

   Maintained his forecast that human-level AI and AGI arrive around 2029, a timeline he has argued for over many years.

   Statement: 2024View source
7. 07
   Frontier lab2030-2035

   Sam Altman

   CEO, OpenAI

   Wrote that superintelligence could be possible in a few thousand days, while acknowledging the timeline may take longer.

   Statement: 2024View source
8. 08
   Frontier lab2030-2035

   Demis Hassabis

   Co-founder and CEO, Google DeepMind

   Estimated AGI may be five to ten years away, while emphasizing that major technical challenges remain.

   Statement: 2025View source
9. 09
   AI pioneer2028-2043

   Geoffrey Hinton

   Turing Award winner and AI researcher

   Updated his view to AI smarter than humans in roughly five to twenty years, while stressing low confidence.

   Statement: 2023View source
10. 10
    Skeptical forecast2030s+

    Yann LeCun

    Turing Award winner; former Chief AI Scientist, Meta

    Argued AGI is not around the corner and will take years, if not decades, because today’s systems still lack key world-modeling abilities.

    Statement: 2025View source

These public forecasts do not determine the AGI Index score.